Working Papers
Working Papers
Embedded Files
"Agricultural shocks and long-term conflict risk: Evidence from desert locust swarms." Under Review [Most recent version] [HICN WP] [WB DIME Blog] [X thread]
Can transitory economic shocks affect long-term violent conflict risk? This paper studies this question using data on conflict events and desert locust swarm exposure across 0.25◦ grid cells in Africa and the Arabian peninsula from 1997-2018. A staggered event study approach shows that swarm exposure increases the average annual probability of any violent conflict in a cell by 1.8 percentage points (64%) in subsequent years. Effects are driven by initial agricultural destruction: exposure to swarms in nonagricultural areas or outside the main crop growing season has no impact. Agricultural activity (but not average productivity) falls following swarm exposure, indicating persistent indirect economic effects which may reduce opportunity costs of fighting. The largest effects of swarms on conflict occur with a 7 year lag and there are no sects in the year of exposure, inconsistent with predictions based on changes in opportunity costs of fighting alone. Impacts of past exposure are concentrated in periods of social/political disruptions driven by other proximate causes (e.g., the Arab Spring, civil war). This creates the delay in the largest impacts of swarm exposure, and aligns with models of civil conflict emphasizing the role of grievances in conflict onset. Patterns of long-term impacts on conflict and heterogeneity by local unrest are similar for exposure to droughts, indicating the mechanisms are not specific to locust swarms. These results add motivation for policies mitigating the risk of agricultural shocks and promoting household resilience and recovery.
"Voltage quality and economic activity" (with Susanna B. Berkouwer, Maya Mikdah, Steven Puller, and Catherine D. Wolfram). Under Review. [Most recent version] [3ie RIDIE Registration ID 928] [CEGA Blog] [Energy for Growth Hub Memo] [Kleinman Center Policy Digest] [MCC Evaluation Brief]
Voltage quality issues—such as sags, spikes, and fluctuations—are pervasive across many low- and middle income countries, yet their unobservability has hampered large-scale analysis of their economic importance. We combine minute-by-minute customer-level power measurements with detailed panel surveys of more than 1,500 households and small businesses to characterize voltage quality issues experienced by customers in Accra, Ghana and analyze their costs. First, we document widespread voltage problems: approximately 20% of grid electricity is of poor quality (more than 10% below nominal voltage, 230V), including 30% during peak hours. Second, this imposes costs through spending on voltage protective equipment, dealing with damaged appliances, and not being able to fully utilize appliances. Third, using a differences-in-differences design, we find that a 5V increase in average voltage—resulting from quasi-random construction of new transformers—reduces the frequency of appliance damages at treatment sites relative to control sites, but generates no other economic impacts after 1 year.
Publications
Publications
Adolescent schooling and adult labor supply: Evidence from COVID-19 school closures and reopenings in Kenya. Biscaye, P.E., Egger, D., & Pape, U.J. 2025. World Bank Economic Review.
[Journal publication page] [PDF] [CERDI Blog] [Replication package]
Money or power? Choosing Covid-19 aid in Kenya. Berkouwer, S.B., Biscaye, P.E., Hsu, O., Kim, O.W., Lee, K., Miguel, E., & Wolfram, C.D. 2023. Energy Economics.
[Journal publication page] [PDF] [PEDL Blog] [IGC Blog]
Exploring the gender gap in mobile money adoption: Evidence from eight low- and middle-income countries. Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., Anderson, C.L., O'Brien-Carelli, C., & Keel, J. 2023. The Journal of Information Technology for Development.
[Journal publication page] [PDF] [EPAR Blog]
Disbursing emergency relief through utilities: Evidence from Ghana. Berkouwer, S.B., Biscaye, P.E., Puller, S., & Wolfram, C.D. 2022. Journal of Development Economics. 156 (May 2022).
[Journal publication page] [PDF] [Online Appendix] [World Bank Blog] [Energy Institute at Haas Blog] [Replication package]
Economic benefits of empowering women in agriculture: Assumptions and evidence. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., Patwardhan, V., & Schmidt, C. 2020. Journal of Development Studies. 57(2), 193-208.
[Journal publication page] [PDF]
A case of mistaken identity? Measuring rates of improved seed adoption in Tanzania using DNA fingerprinting. Wineman, A., Njagi, T., Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Alia, D.Y., Wainana, P., Njue, E., Biscaye, P.E., & Ayieko, M.W. 2020. Journal of Agricultural Economics,. 71(3), 719-741.
[Journal publication page] [PDF]
Methods of crop yield measurement on multi-cropped plots: Examples from Tanzania. Wineman, A., Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., & Biscaye, P.E. 2019. Food Security. 11, 1257-1273.
[Journal publication page] [PDF] [EPAR Blog]
Delivering development? Evidence on self-help groups as development intermediaries in South Asia and Africa. Gugerty, M.K., Biscaye, P.E., & Anderson, C.L. 2018. Development Policy Review. 37(1), 129-151.
[Journal publication page] [PDF]
Mobile money and branchless banking regulations affecting cash-in, cash-out networks in low- and middle-income countries. Reynolds, T.W., Klawitter, M., Biscaye, P.E., & Anderson, C.L. 2018.Gates Open Research 2(64).
[Journal publication page] [PDF] [EPAR Blog]
Relating seasonal hunger and coping and prevention strategies: A panel analysis of Malawian farm households. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Merfeld, J.D., & Biscaye P.E. 2017. Journal of Development Studies. 54(10): 1737-1755.
[Journal publication page] [PDF] [Replication package]
Gender-associated differences in cross-domain risk perception among smallholder farmers in Mali: Implications for development. Cullen, A., Anderson, C.L., Biscaye, P.E., & Reynolds, T.W. 2017. Risk Analysis. 38(7): 1361-1377.
[Journal publication page] [PDF] [EPAR Blog] [Replication package]
Do changes in farmers’ seed traits align with climate change? A case study of maize in Chiapas, Mexico. Anderson, C.L., Cronholm, A., & Biscaye, P.E. 2017. Handbook of Behavioural Economics and Smart Decision-Making: Rational Decision-Making within the Bounds of Reason (Morris Altman, ed.). Chapter 14, 251-274.
Relative effectiveness of bilateral and multilateral aid on development outcomes. Biscaye, P.E., Reynolds, T.W., & Anderson, C.L. 2017. Review of Development Economics. 21(4), 1425-1447.
Research in Progress
Research in Progress
"Natural disasters, risk perceptions, and aspirations" (with Abdulrasheed Isah and Elena Stacy). Analysis stage. [AEA RCT Registration ID 11881]
"Flooding and livelihood diversification in Nigeria: the view from the ground and the view from the sky." (with Abdulrasheed Isah) Writing stage.
"Measuring flood exposure: methods and implications" (with Mook Bangalore, Ayan Sarkar, Elena Stacy, and Jialu Yi). Writing stage.
"Infrastructure and climate resilience: the role of dams in flood risk" (with Mook Bangalore, Emily Pakhtigian, and Tom McDermott). Data collection stage.
"Flooding in Chad: Analyzing incidence and impacts." Writing stage. [Technical Report] [CDP Technical Brief] [Slides]
"Economic shocks and trust in neighbors, the state, and God." Analysis stage.
"Electricity reliability and long-term economic outcomes" (with Susanna B. Berkouwer, Steven Puller, and Catherine D. Wolfram). Writing stage. [AEA RCT Registration ID 4886]
"Recency bias in farmer responses to past pest and disease losses in Malawi." Writing stage. [Draft available upon request]
EPAR Technical Reports/Briefs
EPAR Technical Reports/Briefs
A selection of research outputs from my time with the Evans School Policy Analysis & Research Group (EPAR) at the University of Washington.
Digital financial services
Impact of regulations on cash-in and cash-out networks. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Klawitter, M., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2018. [Technical Report, Research Brief]
Review of digital credit products and regulations. Reynolds, T.W., Klawitter, M., Anderson, C.L., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2017. [Technical Report, Research Brief, Slides]
Review of digital financial services consumer protection regulations in developing countries. Anderson, C.L., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2016. [Technical Report, Slides]
Review of digital financial services interoperability in developing countries. Anderson, C.L., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2016. [Technical Report, Slides]
Gender gaps in digital financial services. Biscaye, P.E., Anderson, C.L., and Reynolds, T.W., et al. 2015. [Technical Report]
Rural/urban divides in mobile coverage expansion. Biscaye, P.E., Anderson, C.L., Goddard, J., and Lane, M. 2015. [Technical Report, Slides]
Agriculture
Tracking agricultural transformation with rural household typologies. Reynolds, T.W., Alia, D., Biscaye, P.E., Coomes, D., Wood, S., and Anderson, C.L. 2020. [Technical Report]
Maize yield and crop area allocation among Tanzanian farmers. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2017. [Slides]
Review of rural and agricultural finance in Sub-Saharan Africa. Anderson, C.L., Biscaye, P.E., Gugerty, M.K., et al. 2016. [Technical Report]
Maize yield trends and agricultural policy in East Africa. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2015. [Technical Report]
Realized yield gains from quality seed and improved varieties. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2015. [Research Brief]
Agribusiness investment clusters and private sector accelerators. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2015. [Technical Report]
Aid, Public Goods, R&D
Assessing Pharma's constraints, opportunities, and investment options in global health R&D: An analysis of SEC 10-K filings. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2018. [Technical Report]
Review of literature on factors affecting private sector investment in global health R&D. Anderson, C.L., Levin, C. Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2018. [Technical Report]
Public expenditures in agriculture: Analyzing data sources. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2018. [Slides]
Funding of agricultural and health R&D public goods. Reynolds, T.W., Anderson, C.L., Biscaye, P.E., and Fowle, M. 2017. [Technical Report, Slides, Blog]
Aid and economic self-sufficiency. Reynolds, T.W., Anderson, C.L., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2017. [Technical Report]
Measuring aid. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2016. [Research Brief]
Evaluating country-level government monitoring and evaluation systems. Anderson, C.L., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2015. [Technical Report]
Evaluating donor-level results measurement systems. Anderson, C.L., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2015. [Technical Report, Blog]
Other
Self-help groups prevalence and coverage. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2019. [Technical Report]
Review of long-term impacts of cash transfer programs. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2017. [Technical Report]
Polygynous households and intrahousehold decision-making: Evidence and policy implications from Mali and Tanzania. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., Merfeld, J., and Greenaway, M. 2017. [Technical Brief, Slides]
Respondent bias in Uganda LSMS time use data. Merfeld, J., Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., and Biscaye, P.E. 2016. [Research Brief, Slides]
Financial pathways out of poverty: Evidence from Bangladesh and Tanzania. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2016. [Technical Report]
Review of national identity programs in developing countries. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2015. [Technical Report, Research Brief, Slides, Blog]
Review of human development indices. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2015. [Technical Report]
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