Pierre E. Biscaye

Working Papers

"Agricultural shocks and the dynamics of conflict risk: Evidence from desert locust swarms." Submitted. [Most recent version] [HICN WP] [WB DIME Blog] [X thread]

Can transitory economic shocks affect the long-term dynamics of violent conflict? Using data on conflict events and desert locust swarm exposure across 0.25 degree grid cells in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula from 1997-2018 in a staggered event study framework, I show that swarm exposure increases subsequent annual conflict risk by 1.8 percentage points (64%). Effects are consistent with initial agricultural destruction, as exposure in non-agricultural areas or outside the main crop growing season has no impact. Yet conflict risk does not increase when the shock occurs as would be predicted by a standalone opportunity cost mechanism. Instead, effects emerge later and are concentrated under broader instability, showing that past exposure amplifies conflict incidence rather than directly causing conflict onset. Grid-cell economic outcomes provide limited support for persistent opportunity cost effects, suggesting other channels may also matter for long-term impacts. Similar delayed and instability-contingent patterns following drought exposure indicate that these dynamics are not specific to locust swarms. Severe agricultural shocks can therefore shape future conflict risk even when they do not generate immediate violence, with implications for how researchers estimate shock effects and how policymakers target post-shock recovery.

"Voltage quality and economic activity" (with Susanna B. Berkouwer, Maya Mikdah, Steven Puller, and Catherine D. Wolfram). R&R at JPE: Micro. [Most recent version] [3ie RIDIE Registration ID 928] [CEGA Blog] [Energy for Growth Hub Memo] [Kleinman Center Policy Digest] [MCC Evaluation Brief]

Voltage quality issues—such as sags, spikes, and fluctuations—are pervasive across many low- and middle income countries, yet their unobservability has hampered large-scale analysis of their economic importance. We combine minute-by-minute customer-level power measurements with detailed panel surveys of more than 1,500 households and small businesses to characterize voltage quality issues experienced by customers in Accra, Ghana and analyze their costs. First, we document widespread voltage problems: approximately 20% of grid electricity is of poor quality (more than 10% below nominal voltage, 230V), including 30% during peak hours. Second, this imposes costs through spending on voltage protective equipment, dealing with damaged appliances, and not being able to fully utilize appliances. Third, using a differences-in-differences design, we find that a 5V increase in average voltage—resulting from quasi-random construction of new transformers—reduces the frequency of appliance damages at treatment sites relative to control sites, but generates no other economic impacts after 1 year.

"Do floods induce long-term livelihood diversification? Evidence from Nigeria" (with Abdulrasheed Isah). Submitted. [Most recent version] [STEG Working Paper] [STEG Policy Brief]

Floods are among the most damaging climate-related shocks in low- and middle-income countries, but it remains unclear whether severe flood exposure induces households to diversify away from agriculture over the long term. This paper examines how flooding affects household livelihoods, labour allocation, and consumption in Nigeria using a nationally representative household panel spanning 2010–2019. We estimate impacts in a difference-in-differences framework that controls for predicted flood exposure and compare community-level flooding measured using survey reports of harmful flooding and a widely used database of satellite-detected inundation. Using survey-based flood exposure, we find persistent declines in consumption (12%) and agricultural production (17%) with no increase in non-farm enterprise labour or earnings. Wage employment rises only among households with prior wage work and without corresponding increases in wage earnings, while migration for work only increases after a delay of several years. In contrast, the satellite-based measure, constrained by low spatial resolution and high cloud cover during the flood period, identifies a substantially different set of flooded communities and suggests that flood exposure increases non-farm enterprise and total household earnings. These results imply that harmful flood exposure does not induce broad livelihood diversification in this setting, but that commonly-used flood exposure measures can lead to sharply different conclusions about climate adaptation responses.

"Measuring exposure and vulnerability to Nigeria’s 2012 floods: Views from the ground and views from the sky

" (with Mook Bangalore and Tom McDermott). R&R at Spatial Demography. [Most recent version]

Measuring the local impacts of flooding is often hindered by inconsistent data, particularly in the Global South. This paper evaluates the 2012 Nigerian floods by comparing seven distinct exposure metrics derived from survey reports, administrative data, and satellite imagery. We find significant divergence between these sources. National exposure estimates vary from 0% to 13% of the population, and only survey-based measures consistently capture significant agricultural losses (ranging from 20% to 60%). Further analysis reveals high intra-community heterogeneity, where "directly affected" households lose up to 80% of crop value while neighboring households remain unaffected. These results suggest that empirical findings are highly sensitive to flood measurement choice, and we recommend that researchers utilize multiple metrics and align their interpretations with the specific nature of each data source.

"Distribution grid constraints on Africa’s energy transition: Customer-level evidence from high-frequency power-quality measurements" Submitted. (with Susanna Berkouwer, Mohini Bariya, Margaret Odero, Noah Klugman, Joshua Adkins, and Genevieve Flaspohler). [Most recent version]

Widespread electrification of cooking, cooling, heating, and transport is central to a global clean energy transition that reduces fossil fuel use and mitigates climate change. Low- and middle-income countries, which account for 85% of the world’s population, are expected to drive most future growth in electricity demand, yet face a largely unaddressed constraint: poor power quality and reliability (PQR). We use newly generated, utility-independent, high-frequency measurements from thousands of grid-connected customers in urban, peri-urban, and rural Africa to document four constraints to electrification in these contexts. First, electricity supply is characterized by persistent PQR problems that impose costs on customers and limit the performance of electric appliances. Second, load growth---from both new connections and increased consumption---reduces voltage quality for existing customers in the absence of substantial investment in distribution infrastructure. Third, weak grids cannot support widespread adoption of electric cooking, as power quality is lowest during peak cooking hours. Fourth, higher temperatures are associated with lower voltage and increased outage risk, and rising demand for cooling will further strain already constrained systems. These challenges arise in settings where electricity systems are often financially and operationally constrained, limiting the capacity to improve distribution infrastructure. Without substantial investment, power quality constraints may undermine the clean energy transition for billions of people in low- and middle-income countries.

Publications

Adolescent schooling and adult labor supply: Evidence from COVID-19 school closures and reopenings in Kenya. Biscaye, P.E., Egger, D., & Pape, U.J. 2025. World Bank Economic Review.

[Journal publication page] [PDF] [CERDI Blog] [Replication package]

Money or power? Choosing Covid-19 aid in Kenya. Berkouwer, S.B., Biscaye, P.E., Hsu, O., Kim, O.W., Lee, K., Miguel, E., & Wolfram, C.D. 2023. Energy Economics.

[Journal publication page] [PDF] [PEDL Blog] [IGC Blog]

Exploring the gender gap in mobile money adoption: Evidence from eight low- and middle-income countries. Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., Anderson, C.L., O'Brien-Carelli, C., & Keel, J. 2023. The Journal of Information Technology for Development.

[Journal publication page] [PDF] [EPAR Blog]

Disbursing emergency relief through utilities: Evidence from Ghana. Berkouwer, S.B., Biscaye, P.E., Puller, S., & Wolfram, C.D. 2022. Journal of Development Economics. 156 (May 2022).

[Journal publication page] [PDF] [Online Appendix] [World Bank Blog] [Energy Institute at Haas Blog] [Replication package]

Economic benefits of empowering women in agriculture: Assumptions and evidence. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., Patwardhan, V., & Schmidt, C. 2020. Journal of Development Studies. 57(2), 193-208.

[Journal publication page] [PDF]

A case of mistaken identity? Measuring rates of improved seed adoption in Tanzania using DNA fingerprinting. Wineman, A., Njagi, T., Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Alia, D.Y., Wainana, P., Njue, E., Biscaye, P.E., & Ayieko, M.W. 2020. Journal of Agricultural Economics,. 71(3), 719-741.

[Journal publication page] [PDF]

Methods of crop yield measurement on multi-cropped plots: Examples from Tanzania. Wineman, A., Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., & Biscaye, P.E. 2019. Food Security. 11, 1257-1273.

[Journal publication page] [PDF] [EPAR Blog]

Delivering development? Evidence on self-help groups as development intermediaries in South Asia and Africa. Gugerty, M.K., Biscaye, P.E., & Anderson, C.L. 2018. Development Policy Review. 37(1), 129-151.

[Journal publication page] [PDF]

Mobile money and branchless banking regulations affecting cash-in, cash-out networks in low- and middle-income countries. Reynolds, T.W., Klawitter, M., Biscaye, P.E., & Anderson, C.L. 2018.Gates Open Research 2(64).

[Journal publication page] [PDF] [EPAR Blog]

Relating seasonal hunger and coping and prevention strategies: A panel analysis of Malawian farm households. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Merfeld, J.D., & Biscaye P.E. 2017. Journal of Development Studies. 54(10): 1737-1755.

[Journal publication page] [PDF] [Replication package]

Gender-associated differences in cross-domain risk perception among smallholder farmers in Mali: Implications for development. Cullen, A., Anderson, C.L., Biscaye, P.E., & Reynolds, T.W. 2017. Risk Analysis. 38(7): 1361-1377.

[Journal publication page] [PDF] [EPAR Blog] [Replication package]

Do changes in farmers’ seed traits align with climate change? A case study of maize in Chiapas, Mexico. Anderson, C.L., Cronholm, A., & Biscaye, P.E. 2017. Handbook of Behavioural Economics and Smart Decision-Making: Rational Decision-Making within the Bounds of Reason (Morris Altman, ed.). Chapter 14, 251-274.

[Book publication page] [PDF]

Relative effectiveness of bilateral and multilateral aid on development outcomes. Biscaye, P.E., Reynolds, T.W., & Anderson, C.L. 2017. Review of Development Economics. 21(4), 1425-1447.

[Journal publication page] [PDF] [EPAR Blog]

Research in Progress

"Measuring flood exposure: methods and implications" (with Mook Bangalore, Ayan Sarkar, Elena Stacy, and Jialu Yi). Writing stage.

"Floods and food security: Analyzing household impacts of floods in Chad." Analysis stage.

"Electricity reliability and long-term economic outcomes" (with Susanna B. Berkouwer, Steven Puller, and Catherine D. Wolfram). Writing stage. [AEA RCT Registration ID 4886]

"Recency bias in farmer responses to past pest and disease losses in Malawi." Writing stage. [Draft available upon request]

"Natural disasters, risk perceptions, and aspirations" (with Abdulrasheed Isah and Elena Stacy). Analysis stage. [AEA RCT Registration ID 11881]

"Infrastructure and climate resilience: the role of dams in flood risk" (with Mook Bangalore, Emily Pakhtigian, and Tom McDermott). Data collection stage.

Technical Reports and Briefs

Analysis of the frequency and impacts of flooding in Chad. Biscaye, P.E. 2026. World Bank SASPP Technical Paper Series. [SASPP Technical Paper] [CDP Technical Brief] [Slides] [Blog]

Below I highlight a selection of research outputs from my time with the Evans School Policy Analysis & Research Group (EPAR) at the University of Washington.

Digital financial services

Impact of regulations on cash-in and cash-out networks. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Klawitter, M., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2018. [Technical Report, Research Brief]

Review of digital credit products and regulations. Reynolds, T.W., Klawitter, M., Anderson, C.L., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2017. [Technical Report, Research Brief, Slides]

Review of digital financial services consumer protection regulations in developing countries. Anderson, C.L., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2016. [Technical Report, Slides]

Review of digital financial services interoperability in developing countries. Anderson, C.L., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2016. [Technical Report, Slides]

Gender gaps in digital financial services. Biscaye, P.E., Anderson, C.L., and Reynolds, T.W., et al. 2015. [Technical Report]

Rural/urban divides in mobile coverage expansion. Biscaye, P.E., Anderson, C.L., Goddard, J., and Lane, M. 2015. [Technical Report, Slides]

Agriculture

Tracking agricultural transformation with rural household typologies. Reynolds, T.W., Alia, D., Biscaye, P.E., Coomes, D., Wood, S., and Anderson, C.L. 2020. [Technical Report]

Maize yield and crop area allocation among Tanzanian farmers. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2017. [Slides]

Review of rural and agricultural finance in Sub-Saharan Africa. Anderson, C.L., Biscaye, P.E., Gugerty, M.K., et al. 2016. [Technical Report]

Maize yield trends and agricultural policy in East Africa. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2015. [Technical Report]

Realized yield gains from quality seed and improved varieties. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2015. [Research Brief]

Agribusiness investment clusters and private sector accelerators. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2015. [Technical Report]

Aid, Public Goods, R&D

Assessing Pharma's constraints, opportunities, and investment options in global health R&D: An analysis of SEC 10-K filings. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2018. [Technical Report]

Review of literature on factors affecting private sector investment in global health R&D. Anderson, C.L., Levin, C. Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2018. [Technical Report]

Public expenditures in agriculture: Analyzing data sources. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2018. [Slides]

Funding of agricultural and health R&D public goods. Reynolds, T.W., Anderson, C.L., Biscaye, P.E., and Fowle, M. 2017. [Technical Report, Slides, Blog]

Aid and economic self-sufficiency. Reynolds, T.W., Anderson, C.L., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2017. [Technical Report]

Measuring aid. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2016. [Research Brief]

Evaluating country-level government monitoring and evaluation systems. Anderson, C.L., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2015. [Technical Report]

Evaluating donor-level results measurement systems. Anderson, C.L., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2015. [Technical Report, Blog]

Other

Self-help groups prevalence and coverage. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2019. [Technical Report]

Review of long-term impacts of cash transfer programs. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2017. [Technical Report]

Polygynous households and intrahousehold decision-making: Evidence and policy implications from Mali and Tanzania. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., Merfeld, J., and Greenaway, M. 2017. [Technical Brief, Slides]

Respondent bias in Uganda LSMS time use data. Merfeld, J., Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., and Biscaye, P.E. 2016. [Research Brief, Slides]

Financial pathways out of poverty: Evidence from Bangladesh and Tanzania. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2016. [Technical Report]

Review of national identity programs in developing countries. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2015. [Technical Report, Research Brief, Slides, Blog]

Review of human development indices. Anderson, C.L., Reynolds, T.W., Biscaye, P.E., et al. 2015. [Technical Report]

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